Xangsane
jova
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WHOSE PATH MOGS?
LEE000
WTNT43 KNHC 052054
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023
1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone has
been improving in structure throughout the day, with additional
curved banding features and a new burst of convection near the
center. A late-arriving ASCAT-C pass indicated maximum winds
supporting 35 kt, and the satellite presentation has notably
improved since that time. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt
to match the satellite trends.
Lee is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. There are no
significant changes to the NHC track forecast with a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic likely to persist to the north of the
storm. This ridge should provide a steady steering current, with a
general west-northwestward course expected through the weekend with
some reduction in forward speed. The spread in the model guidance
remains low, and the official forecast is adjusted a bit to the
northeast closer to the model consensus. Still, it is too early to
determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward
Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges.
It is becoming a question of when and not if rapid intensification
(RI) occurs with Lee. A well-defined outflow pattern has developed
over the circulation, and there are some hints on a recent SSMI/S
microwave pass that parts of an inner core are forming. There's
still some notable northeasterly shear that could keep Lee in
check for the next day or two, so the NHC intensity forecast will
stay at a more moderate rate of intensification during that time.
All of the models decrease the shear by Friday, so RI is explicitly
forecast at that time frame while Lee is moving over extremely warm
waters. The new forecast is adjusted higher than the last advisory,
near the model consensus, but there's a notable contingent of
guidance higher than this forecast. There is increasing confidence
on Lee becoming a very powerful hurricane by this weekend.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it
is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these
possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
$$
Forecaster O'Pry
WTNT43 KNHC 052054
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023
1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone has
been improving in structure throughout the day, with additional
curved banding features and a new burst of convection near the
center. A late-arriving ASCAT-C pass indicated maximum winds
supporting 35 kt, and the satellite presentation has notably
improved since that time. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt
to match the satellite trends.
Lee is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. There are no
significant changes to the NHC track forecast with a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic likely to persist to the north of the
storm. This ridge should provide a steady steering current, with a
general west-northwestward course expected through the weekend with
some reduction in forward speed. The spread in the model guidance
remains low, and the official forecast is adjusted a bit to the
northeast closer to the model consensus. Still, it is too early to
determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward
Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges.
It is becoming a question of when and not if rapid intensification
(RI) occurs with Lee. A well-defined outflow pattern has developed
over the circulation, and there are some hints on a recent SSMI/S
microwave pass that parts of an inner core are forming. There's
still some notable northeasterly shear that could keep Lee in
check for the next day or two, so the NHC intensity forecast will
stay at a more moderate rate of intensification during that time.
All of the models decrease the shear by Friday, so RI is explicitly
forecast at that time frame while Lee is moving over extremely warm
waters. The new forecast is adjusted higher than the last advisory,
near the model consensus, but there's a notable contingent of
guidance higher than this forecast. There is increasing confidence
on Lee becoming a very powerful hurricane by this weekend.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it
is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these
possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
$$
Forecaster O'Pry
742
WTPZ41 KNHC 052049
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared
satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of
the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued
over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI
microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and
indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south
than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep
convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level
eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and
objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level
feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure,
the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at
55kt.
The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the
low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around
8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest
motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge
extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences
being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the
re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus
aids.
Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the
climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid
intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity
forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest
to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is
forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean
temperatures inducing a weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Gandy/Barrett
WTPZ41 KNHC 052049
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared
satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of
the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued
over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI
microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and
indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south
than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep
convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level
eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and
objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level
feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure,
the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at
55kt.
The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the
low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around
8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest
motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge
extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences
being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the
re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus
aids.
Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the
climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid
intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity
forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest
to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is
forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean
temperatures inducing a weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Gandy/Barrett
[MOG BATTLE] Who will mog harder? Jova or Lee?
Title. Jova https://looksmax.org/threads/hurricane-jovan-humberto-andrade-bbctakeover-set-to-go-er-in-the-pacific-ocean.811662/ Lee https://looksmax.org/threads/hurricanes-lee-and-margot-set-to-have-a-mog-battle-in-the-atlantic-ocean-next-week-lee-will-go-er-in-the-caribbean.811575/
looksmax.org
@slop slinger @howtallareyou
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