MoggerGaston
Weltschmerz
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'VARIANCE in life-experiences is insane. Comparison to gambling. Why you shouldn't give up just yet.'
I wanted to write this topic for a while already, but it required major effort that I never felt like putting into it for now. Maybe in the future.
(I want to proof everything with numbers. Both for gambling, as well as making rudimentary calculations for how this would work out for human dating results, socializing results. Comparing the effects). So I have it on the back of my mind for now, maybe somewhere in the future. I think that simulations of human behavior would prove everything I talk about though. The fine-tuning is mostly about till what extent, and how significant variance truly is.
So I will make this topic for now instead, which covers most I wanted to talk about anyways.
A summary is that:
Even the best possible gamblers, such as the best possible poker players like Phil Ivey, who clearly 'gamble' with positive 'Expected Value', will experience MASSIVE SWINGS in their outcomes, in their results.
Even when you are a fucking MASTERMIND, you are bound to an extreme element of luck which decides your outcome. In poker.
And the effects of 'luck' called variance, in mathematical terms, is extremely under-rated in normal human psychology. Or so I believe.
It's a weakness of the human mind, the way we were biologically programmed to not understand that
we could be making the right decision within the knowledge/ability that we had, get the wrong outcome, and then question our right decision. Which is the wrong conclusion, but a natural one to take from our failed human biology standpoint.
And the effects of this can be absolutely brutal. Because if your mind adopts to this 'bad outcome', you will be adjusting your decision-making process in a negative way. You will be making WORSE decisions, just because one of your GOOD decisions had a bad outcome due to sheer 'bad luck'.
Leading to a downwards spiral. Where for example, you could be socializing less, putting less interest into girls, into making friends, and so on.
Not because you are ugly/faulty/autistic, not because you made a mistake, no, you simply had bad luck a couple of times.
You may not believe me, because your mind has adopted.
You had these few experiences, just like me, where you felt like you did everything right, but the result was everything wrong.
And as a result of that, you adapted. You changed your behavior, and you stopped 'doing everything right', because it didn't give you the results you were looking for.
And my take in this post is to try and make you understand that perhaps you were just fucking unlucky. And that being fucking unlucky is normal in life, because variance in life is EVERYWHERE. You can't escape statistical probability.
And adapting to an unlucky result, like being rejected, socially bullied, being incel, despite doing everything right. Could be the worst possible thing you could do.
You are ditching your good strategy, the strategy that would've worked out in the end, which would've lead to a positive outcome in the end.
(Positive EV in poker terms).
Adapting to an unlucky situation, taking on an unideal strategy, otherwise be known as 'being on tilt' in poker. Which will lead to many losses in the future. Often only further solidifying your bad thoughts about how the world works.
Instead of having a strategy that was meant to succeed, or at least do 'average' in life. Now, due to variance, failing a couple of time due to sheer bad luck.
Now as a result: You now adopted a strategy that was meant to fail.
absolutely fucking brutal.
An example is from the movie, Molly's game:
I truly believe that most of us incels, on this forum, are simply a result of VARIANCE in life.
1) We played our life. We did our best, as far as we knew. We made the 'right decision', we played the game as it was supposed to be played.
2) Because we got bad results, but not because our decision-making was bad. Because we were so ugly, because our behavior was so wrong. No: Our bad results were due to variance. Otherwise known as bad luck.
3) Due to bad variance, early in our life, we changed a winning strategy. We had a good strategy before, but due to bad luck, we started thinking it was a bad strategy after all. So instead we adopted another strategy, like socially excluding ourselves, which led to similar bad results as we had before. But now, our bad results are not a result of sheer bad luck, variance, but simply due to the fact our strategy is garbage!!!!!
4) inceldom.
It's so fucking brutal.
Again, I want to provide the calculations and the science that would give this topic more substance. But I think that the idea of it has substance enough for now. I think I am right and I don't expect calculations to lead to different conclusions than I have sort-of drawn in my topic thus far.
I wanted to write this topic for a while already, but it required major effort that I never felt like putting into it for now. Maybe in the future.
(I want to proof everything with numbers. Both for gambling, as well as making rudimentary calculations for how this would work out for human dating results, socializing results. Comparing the effects). So I have it on the back of my mind for now, maybe somewhere in the future. I think that simulations of human behavior would prove everything I talk about though. The fine-tuning is mostly about till what extent, and how significant variance truly is.
So I will make this topic for now instead, which covers most I wanted to talk about anyways.
A summary is that:
Even the best possible gamblers, such as the best possible poker players like Phil Ivey, who clearly 'gamble' with positive 'Expected Value', will experience MASSIVE SWINGS in their outcomes, in their results.
Even when you are a fucking MASTERMIND, you are bound to an extreme element of luck which decides your outcome. In poker.
And the effects of 'luck' called variance, in mathematical terms, is extremely under-rated in normal human psychology. Or so I believe.
It's a weakness of the human mind, the way we were biologically programmed to not understand that
we could be making the right decision within the knowledge/ability that we had, get the wrong outcome, and then question our right decision. Which is the wrong conclusion, but a natural one to take from our failed human biology standpoint.
And the effects of this can be absolutely brutal. Because if your mind adopts to this 'bad outcome', you will be adjusting your decision-making process in a negative way. You will be making WORSE decisions, just because one of your GOOD decisions had a bad outcome due to sheer 'bad luck'.
Leading to a downwards spiral. Where for example, you could be socializing less, putting less interest into girls, into making friends, and so on.
Not because you are ugly/faulty/autistic, not because you made a mistake, no, you simply had bad luck a couple of times.
You may not believe me, because your mind has adopted.
You had these few experiences, just like me, where you felt like you did everything right, but the result was everything wrong.
And as a result of that, you adapted. You changed your behavior, and you stopped 'doing everything right', because it didn't give you the results you were looking for.
And my take in this post is to try and make you understand that perhaps you were just fucking unlucky. And that being fucking unlucky is normal in life, because variance in life is EVERYWHERE. You can't escape statistical probability.
And adapting to an unlucky result, like being rejected, socially bullied, being incel, despite doing everything right. Could be the worst possible thing you could do.
You are ditching your good strategy, the strategy that would've worked out in the end, which would've lead to a positive outcome in the end.
(Positive EV in poker terms).
Adapting to an unlucky situation, taking on an unideal strategy, otherwise be known as 'being on tilt' in poker. Which will lead to many losses in the future. Often only further solidifying your bad thoughts about how the world works.
Instead of having a strategy that was meant to succeed, or at least do 'average' in life. Now, due to variance, failing a couple of time due to sheer bad luck.
Now as a result: You now adopted a strategy that was meant to fail.
absolutely fucking brutal.
An example is from the movie, Molly's game:
I truly believe that most of us incels, on this forum, are simply a result of VARIANCE in life.
1) We played our life. We did our best, as far as we knew. We made the 'right decision', we played the game as it was supposed to be played.
2) Because we got bad results, but not because our decision-making was bad. Because we were so ugly, because our behavior was so wrong. No: Our bad results were due to variance. Otherwise known as bad luck.
3) Due to bad variance, early in our life, we changed a winning strategy. We had a good strategy before, but due to bad luck, we started thinking it was a bad strategy after all. So instead we adopted another strategy, like socially excluding ourselves, which led to similar bad results as we had before. But now, our bad results are not a result of sheer bad luck, variance, but simply due to the fact our strategy is garbage!!!!!
4) inceldom.
It's so fucking brutal.
Again, I want to provide the calculations and the science that would give this topic more substance. But I think that the idea of it has substance enough for now. I think I am right and I don't expect calculations to lead to different conclusions than I have sort-of drawn in my topic thus far.
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